Education / Research / Risk
Resources for Smarter Market Decisions
The Keator Capital Resources Center brings together research notes, trading education, recommended reading, and practical tools for understanding market structure, options risk, volatility, and signal-based decision making. Our goal is to help traders think more clearly, manage risk more intelligently, and understand the market as a layered signal environment rather than a simple price chart.
Featured Resource
Understanding Touch Risk in 0DTE Credit Spreads
Most traders focus on whether a trade wins or loses. In fast-moving 0DTE markets, the path matters just as much as the final result. Touch risk measures whether the short strike is threatened before the trade reaches its profit target. This concept is central to how Keator Capital evaluates low-stress trade quality.
Read the Concept
Education
Recommended Reading
A curated library of books and research themes that shaped our approach to options, market structure, volatility, quantitative trading, signal processing, and disciplined decision-making.
Options
Options & Volatility
Foundational material for understanding options pricing, implied volatility, Greeks, spread construction, and the behavior of defined-risk strategies.
- Options Volatility & Pricing - Sheldon Natenberg
- Trading Options Greeks - Dan Passarelli
- Option Volatility and Pricing Strategies - Sheldon Natenberg
Research
Quantitative Trading
Resources focused on systematic research, data-driven trading, backtesting, model validation, and the discipline required to separate durable edge from curve fitting.
- Advances in Financial Machine Learning - Marcos Lopez de Prado
- Evidence-Based Technical Analysis - David Aronson
- Quantitative Trading - Ernest Chan
Decision Science
Signal, Noise & Decision Science
Markets are noisy systems. These resources explore probability, uncertainty, pattern recognition, and the challenge of making clear decisions from imperfect data.
- The Signal and the Noise - Nate Silver
- Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman
Risk
Risk & Trading Psychology
Long-term survival depends on risk control, emotional discipline, position sizing, and the ability to avoid unnecessary trades when conditions are unclear.
- Trading in the Zone - Mark Douglas
- The Psychology of Trading - Brett Steenbarger
- The Daily Trading Coach - Brett Steenbarger
Concepts
Trading Concepts Library
Plain-English explanations of the core ideas behind options trading, market structure, volatility, and defined-risk strategy design.
What Is a Credit Spread?
A defined-risk options strategy that sells one option and buys another farther out of the money. Credit spreads allow traders to define risk, collect premium, and structure trades around probability and expected movement.
What Is 0DTE Trading?
0DTE options expire the same day they are traded. They offer fast opportunity but require strict risk control, precise timing, and a deep understanding of touch risk, volatility, and intraday path behavior.
Understanding Delta
Delta helps estimate how sensitive an option is to movement in the underlying asset. In our research, delta is also used as a practical way to select short strikes and control touch risk.
Touch Risk vs. Win Rate
A trade can eventually win and still become stressful if the short strike is touched before profit. Keator Capital focuses heavily on touch-before-profit risk because path matters, especially in 0DTE trading.
Why Market Breadth Matters
SPX does not move in isolation. Sector participation, QQQ and XLK leadership, IWM and RSP breadth, HYG/LQD credit behavior, and VIX movement all help reveal whether a market move is supported or fragile.
What Is VIX Divergence?
When SPX rises while VIX also rises, the market may be sending a warning. This type of divergence can signal hidden stress, reversal risk, or weakening confidence beneath the surface.
What Is a Market Pivot?
A pivot is more than a local high or low. It is a transition in market energy where price, volatility, breadth, and structure begin to shift. Identifying high-quality pivots is central to our research.
Defined-Risk Trading
Defined-risk strategies allow traders to know their maximum loss before entering a position. This supports disciplined sizing, cleaner risk management, and more consistent decision-making.
Research
AlphaQuant Research Notes
A look inside the research themes behind AlphaQuant, our signal-processing and market-structure engine. These notes explain the concepts behind the system without exposing proprietary implementation details.
FFT Pivot Detection
The AlphaQuant engine uses Fast Fourier Transform concepts to study market movement as a signal field. By separating meaningful frequency behavior from background noise, the system helps identify where directional pressure may be shifting.
Wave & Fractal Structure
Markets rarely move in straight lines. They impulse, retrace, continue, fail, and reset. Our wave-structure research focuses on identifying when a pullback may be a healthy retracement and when a pivot may be preparing for continuation.
Market Breadth Engine
The breadth layer studies whether the broader market is confirming or contradicting SPX movement. Sector ETFs, technology leadership, credit-sensitive assets, broad-market participation, and volatility behavior are all part of the alignment map.
VIX & Volatility Behavior
Volatility often reveals stress before price fully responds. VIX movement, volatility expansion, and SPX/VIX divergence are studied as warning signals for reversals, failed pivots, and risk-off transitions.
Touch-Risk Modeling
In 0DTE trading, it is not enough to know whether a trade eventually wins. The path matters. AlphaQuant studies whether a short strike is likely to be touched before the profit target is reached.
Machine-Learning Probability Layer
The machine-learning layer is designed to learn from historical pivot events, volatility conditions, breadth signals, spread structure, and trade outcomes. Its goal is to help classify trade quality, side selection, risk level, and no-trade conditions.
Training
Training Center
Structured learning paths for traders who want to understand options, market structure, signal-based analysis, and disciplined risk management.
Beginner Path
Options Foundations
Start with the basics: calls, puts, credit spreads, risk-defined trades, delta, expiration, position sizing, and why risk control matters more than prediction.
- Options basics
- Credit spreads
- Defined risk
- Delta and probability
- Position sizing
- Trade journaling
Intermediate Path
0DTE Market Structure
Learn how intraday structure, volatility, opening range behavior, market breadth, and pivot quality affect short-duration options trades.
- 0DTE risk
- Market pivots
- VWAP and opening structure
- VIX behavior
- Touch-before-profit risk
- Fast exit planning
Advanced Path
Signal-Based Trading Systems
Explore the research concepts behind signal processing, FFT analysis, wave-state modeling, breadth confirmation, and machine-learning-assisted trade selection.
- FFT signal concepts
- Wave and fractal structure
- Market breadth modeling
- Volatility divergence
- Touch-risk labels
- Probability-based trade selection
Risk
Risk & Transparency
Technology does not remove risk. Keator Capital's research is built around the belief that risk must be measured, respected, and controlled before any trade is considered.
Why No-Trade Days Matter
Not every market condition deserves a trade. A disciplined system must know when opportunity is present and when uncertainty is too high.
Why Touch Risk Matters
A spread can still be profitable even after stress, but automation requires cleaner behavior. We study whether the short strike is touched before the trade reaches its profit target.
Why Slippage Must Be Tested
Backtests that ignore fill quality can look far better than real execution. Our research compares natural pricing, mid pricing, and realistic fill assumptions.
Why Position Sizing Matters
The same trade can be responsible or reckless depending on size. Position sizing determines whether a strategy survives normal losing streaks and volatility shocks.
Why Backtesting Must Be Skeptical
A strong backtest is not proof of future performance. It is a research tool. We test out-of-sample behavior, slippage, drawdown, touch risk, and failure conditions.
Defined Risk First
Keator Capital focuses on defined-risk structures because the first job of any trading system is survival. Growth comes after risk is controlled.
Important Risk Notice
Important Risk Notice
The information provided in the Keator Capital Resources Center is for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, option, or financial instrument. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, backtested results, research examples, or hypothetical models do not guarantee future results. Always evaluate risk carefully and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.